In Ukraine, the price of soybeans on barges is increasing. Yes, as of the morning of September 15, prices have increased by an average of UAH 34-37 per ton.
From the end of August, sea ports began to accept cars with the 2020 soybean harvest.
"Soya is a niche crop. It is estimated that the total annual volume of its transshipment for export is about 2.5 million tons. In the past 2019/20 marketing year, "NIKA-TERA SME" transshipped more than 300,000 tons of this crop, which accounted for 14% of the total volume of soybeans exported from Ukraine," said the head of the NIKA-TERA specialized port, Alim Agakishieev.
USDA's September balance sheet data for soybeans was roughly in line with analysts' earlier forecasts, so it didn't surprise the market, but Chicago soybean prices rose 2% to $366.5/t on Friday due to a sharp increase in sales to China.
The forecast of world initial stocks of soybeans in FY 2020/21 has been raised to 96 million tons, which will be significantly lower than the 113.1 million tons in FY 2019/20.
Compared to the August balance sheet, the estimate of global soybean production was reduced by 0.66 million tons to 369.74 million tons (337.14 million tons in 2019/20 MR). For the USA, the harvest forecast was reduced by 3 million tons to 117.38 million tons, although analysts estimated it at 116.8 million tons, and in the previous season it was 96.7 million tons.
This reduction will be offset by an increase in the production forecast for Brazil due to an increase in planted area by 2 million t to a record 133 million t (126 million t in FY 2019/20), Canada by 0.2 million t to 6 million t and India by 0.45 million tons to 11.2 million tons.
For Ukraine, the harvest forecast was reduced to 3.3 million tons.
The estimate of global consumption of soybeans was increased by 1.17 million tons to 369.07 million tons, compared to 352 million tons in 2019/20 FY and 343.55 million tons in 2018/19 FY. The volume of soybean consumption by China will reach 116.4 million tons, which will exceed the indicator of 2019/20 MR by 8.2 million tons, and the indicator of 2018/19 MR by 14 million tons.
The world trade forecast was increased by 0.85 million tons to 166.34 million tons thanks to an increase in the export estimate for Brazil by 1 million tons to 85 million tons compared to 93.5 million tons in the previous season. China has increased its purchases of soybeans in the United States, after the price of soybeans in Brazil has risen sharply, which will lead to an increase in the area sown.
The forecast of soybean imports to China was left at the level of 99 million tons compared to 98 million tons in the 2019/20 season.
The estimate of the world's final stocks of soybeans in 2020/21 was lowered by 1.8 million tons to 93.6 million tons, compared to the experts' forecast of 92.5-93.11 million tons and 96 million tons in the 2019/20 season. The decrease in stocks in the US will be partially offset by their increase in Brazil and Argentina.